The USDPP began as the U.S. “country team” for the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project launched in 2012 by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and The Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) to develop technically and economically feasible national plans for cutting carbon emissions by at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 in order to avoid 2ºC in man-made global warming. The initial results of this collaboration are reflected in a series of reports – a project Synthesis Report as well as individual country reports on deep decarbonization pathways for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, United Kingdom and United States.
As part of the DDPP effort, USDDPP has issued two U.S. country reports. The first is a technical assessment of the U.S. energy system and economy that demonstrates that the 80% by 2050 target is both technically viable and affordable, costing roughly 1% of GDP. The technical assessment outlines four Deep Decarbonization Pathways (or DDPs) named for the predominant electricity generation technology employed in each: High Renewable, High CCS, High Nuclear and a Mixed. The second offers key policy insights and recommendations for how the U.S. can best implement the transformation outlined in the first report even in the absence of perfect economic and technological foresight.
USDDPP is the creator of EnergyPATHWAYS, a long-term energy and carbon planning model that tracks energy use, CO2 emissions and energy costs across the commercial, industrial, residential and transportation sectors, accounting for every type of equipment that produces, transmits and consumes energy, from electricity generation plants and transmission equipment to cars, trucks, airplanes, and factories, to lightbulbs. The model contains a stock rollover component that tracks the lifecycle of all equipment, and how often it is decommissioned and replaced.
The EnergyPATHWAYS model is open-source and available in two formats. A native application that can be installed on the local servers designed to be used by researchers and developers, and a web-based application that enables analysts and energy planners to agencies, NGOs, business, energy companies and in government to easily run "what if" scenarios.
The model balances energy production and demand on an hourly basis to ensure that wind and solar generation is balanced with end-user demand, and that the cost of energy balancing is accurately accounted for. The model does not assume that a mix of renewable electricity sources can balance end use demand under all conditions. Renewable energy load balancing is accomplished primarily through synthetic fuel manufacturing during periods of excess electricity generation, with additional support from flexible EV charging capacity. While the resulting synthetic fuels are not cost-effective when compared with fossil fuels, that additional cost can be absorbed in the context of the efficiency of the overall system.
Data for factors outside of the energy system, such as commercial and residential activity, economic growth, population growth, agriculture, land use, and land cover change, are provided by the EIA and PNNL. There is nothing in this data that would skew the model results.
The modeling does not allow for “energy miracles”, and it does not use any non-market-ready technologies such as grid scale batteries, 4th generation nuclear power, fusion nuclear power, high efficiency coal and gas plant CCS, negative carbon atmospheric CCS, or unexpected breakthroughs in synthetic fuels or bio fuels. There are no “blue sky” technology assumptions that would put the validity of the results in question.
Each Deep Decarbonization Pathway is based on three pillars: a 70% decrease in the energy intensity of economic activity through improved efficiency, an increase in end-use electricity and electrically manufactured fuels from 20% to 50% of all energy end-uses, and a reduction in the carbon intensity of electricity by 97%.